Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Estimating total species using a weighted combination of expected mixture distribution component counts

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - In this paper we present a weighted mixture distribution component counts (MDCC) approach for estimating total number of species. The proposed method...     

Outsourcing,trade, technology,and greenhouse gas emissions

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - U.S. output has steadily outpaced the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past several decades. The decoupling of these two trends...     

Legacy and alternative halogenated flame retardants in Lake Geneva fish

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Legacy (i.e., polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD)) and alternative halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) were...     

Prevalence and perspectives of illegal trade in cacti and succulent plants in the collector community

Although illegal wildlife trade (IWT) represents a serious threat to biodiversity, research into the prevalence of illegal plant collection and trade remains scarce. Because cacti and succulents are heavily threatened by overcollection for often illegal, international ornamental trade, we surveyed 441 members of the cacti and succulent hobbyist collector community with a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. We sought to understand collector perspectives on the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) and on the threats IWT poses to cactus and succulent conservation. Most respondents (74% of 401 respondents) stated that illegal collection in cacti and succulents represents a “very serious problem” and that the problem of wild plant collection is increasing (72% of 319 respondents). Most forms of illegal collection and trade were seen as very unacceptable by respondents. Self-reported noncompliance with CITES rules was uncommon (11.2% of 418 respondents); it remains a persistent problem in parts of the cacti and succulent hobbyist community. People engaging in rule breaking, such as transporting plants without required CITES documents, generally did so knowingly. Although 60.6% of 381 respondents regarded CITES as a very important tool for conservation, sentiment toward CITES and its efficacy in helping species conservation was mixed. Collectors in our survey saw themselves as potentially playing important roles in cactus and succulent conservation, but this potential resource remains largely untapped. Our results suggest the need for enhanced consultation with stakeholders in CITES decision-making. For challenging subjects like IWT, developing evidence-based responses demands deep interdisciplinary engagement, including assessing the conservation impact of species listings on CITES appendices.     

某危险废物填埋场地下水污染预测及控制模拟

以某危险废物填埋场为研究对象,在收集其水文地质资料基础上,运用Visual Modflow建立填埋场地下水水流和溶质运移耦合模型,对填埋场防渗层发生渗漏后,渗滤液中Cr6+在地下水中的运移过程以及地面硬化、防渗墙和排水沟3种污染控制措施对污染羽阻隔效果进行模拟预测.结果表明,Cr6+随地下水流方向运移形成污染羽,10 a后污染羽到达水塘边界,运移距离约为1 450 m,但随后10～20 a之间污染羽扩散范围没有明显扩大;地表硬化后,20 a内污染羽未扩散至水塘边界;防渗墙设置到上层含水层底部时,监测井Cr6+浓度高于未设置防渗墙时浓度,设置到下层含水层底部时,Cr6+浓度与设置于上层含水层时监测结果相反;排水沟日排水量达到2 642 m3时能有效控制污染羽扩散,20 a后污染羽尚未污染监测井;地表硬化与排水沟组合控制污染物扩散,效果最佳,同时排水沟日排水量可减少为1 878 m3.因此,当填埋场发生渗漏时,建议采用设置排水沟与周边地表硬化组合的地下水污染控制措施.     

Heavy metal phytoextraction by Sedum alfredii is affected by continual clipping and phosphorus fertilization amendment

Improving the efficacy of phytoextraction is critical for its successful application in metal contaminated soils. Mineral nutrition affects plant growth and metal absorption and subsequently the accumulation of heavy metal through hyper-accumulator plants. This study assessed the effects of di-hydrogen phosphates (KH₂PO₄, Ca(H₂PO₄)₂, NaH₂PO₄ and NH₄H₂PO₄) application at three levels (22, 88 and 352 mg P/kg soil) on Sedum alfredii growth and metal uptake by three consecutive harvests on aged and Zn/Cd combined contaminated paddy soil. The addition of phosphates (P) significantly increased the amount of Zn taken up by S. alfredii due to increased shoot Zn concentration and dry matter yield (DMY) (P<0.05). The highest phytoextraction of Zn and Cd was observed in KH₂PO₄ and NH₄H₂PO₄ treatment at 352 mg P/kg soil. The amount of Zn removed by phytoextraction increased in the order of 1st clipping<2nd clipping<3rd clipping, and for Cd extraction the order was 2nd clipping<1st clipping<3rd clipping. These results indicate that the application of P fertilizers coupled with multiple cuttings can enhance the removal of Zn and Cd from contaminated soils by S. alfredii, thus shortening the time needed for accomplishing remediation goals.     

An ‘ameridelphian’ marsupial from the early Eocene of Australia supports a complex model of Southern Hemisphere marsupial biogeography

Recent molecular data strongly support the monophyly of all extant Australian and New Guinean marsupials (Eomarsupialia) to the exclusion of extant South American marsupials. This, together with available geological and fossil evidence, has been used to argue that the presence of marsupials in Australia is simply the result of a single dispersal event from South America during the latest Cretaceous or Palaeocene, without subsequent dispersals between the two continents. Here, I describe an isolated ankle bone (calcaneus) of a metatherian from the early Eocene Tingamarra Local Fauna in northeastern Australia. Strikingly, this specimen, QM F30060, lacks the ‘continuous lower ankle joint pattern’ (CLAJP), presence of which is a highly distinctive apomorphy of the marsupial clade Australidelphia, which includes Eomarsupialia, the living South American microbiotherian Dromiciops and the Tingamarran fossil marsupial Djarthia. Comparisons with a range of marsupials and stem-metatherians strongly suggest that the absence of the CLAJP in QM F30060 is plesiomorphic, and that this specimen represents the first unequivocal non-australidelphian (‘ameridelphian’) metatherian known from Australia. This interpretation is confirmed by phylogenetic analyses that place QM F30060 within (crown-group) Marsupialia, but outside Australidelphia. Based on these results, the distribution of marsupials within Gondwana cannot be explained by simply a single dispersal event from South America and Australia. Either there were multiple dispersals by marsupials (and possibly also stem-metatherians) between South America and Australia, in one or both directions, or, alternatively, there was a broadly similar metatherian fauna stretching across southern South America, Antarctica and Australia during the Late Cretaceous–early Palaeogene.     

Molecular evidence of facultative intraguild predation by Monochamus titillator larvae (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on members of the southern pine beetle guild

The southern pine bark beetle guild (SPBG) is arguably the most destructive group of forest insects in the southeastern USA. This guild contains five species of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae): Dendroctonus frontalis, Dendroctonus terebrans, Ips avulsus, Ips calligraphus, and Ips grandicollis. A diverse community of illicit receivers is attracted to pheromones emitted by the SPBG, including the woodborers Monochamus carolinensis and Monochamus titillator (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). These woodborers have been traditionally classified as resource competitors; however, laboratory assays suggest that larval M. carolinensis may be facultative intraguild predators of SPBG larvae. This study used polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based molecular gut content analyses to characterize subcortical interactions between M. titillator and members of the SPBG. The half-lives of SPBG DNA were estimated in the laboratory prior to examining these interactions in the field. A total of 271 field-collected M. titillator larvae were analyzed and 26 (9.6?%) tested positive for DNA of members of the SPBG. Of these larvae, 25 (96.2?%) tested positive for I. grandicollis and one (3.8?%) for I. calligraphus. Failure to detect D. terebrans and D. frontalis was likely due to their absence in the field. I. avulsus was present, but primers developed using adult tissues failed to amplify larval tissue. Results from this study support the hypothesis that larval Monochamus spp. are facultative intraguild predators of bark beetle larvae. Additionally, this study demonstrates the capabilities of PCR in elucidating the interactions of cryptic forest insects and provides a tool to better understand mechanisms driving southern pine beetle guild population fluctuations.     

Modelling sulphate-enhanced cadmium uptake by Zea mays from nutrient solution under conditions of constant free Cd2+ ion activity

A controlled hydroponic experiment was undertaken to investigate Cd uptake in relation to the activity of Cd species in solution other than the free ion (Cd²⁺) by maintaining a constant Cd²⁺ activity under variable SO₄₂⁻ and Cl⁻ concentrations exposed to maize (Zea mays var. Cameron) plants. The objectives of these experiments were: (1) to distinguish and quantify the different uptake rates of free and inorganic-complexed Cd from nutrient solution, and (2) to model the uptake of Cd by maize with a Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) in a system which facilitates the close examination of root characteristics. Results of the current experiments suggest that, in addition to the free ion, CdSO₄⁰ complexes are important factors in determining Cd uptake in nutrient solution by maize plants. Higher nominal SO₄²⁻ concentrations in solution generally resulted in a greater Cd accumulation by maize plants than predicted by the Cd²⁺ activity. A better integration of the complete dataset for the 3 harvest times (6, 9 and 11 days after treatment) was achieved by including consideration of both the duration of Cd exposure and especially the root surface area to express Cd uptake. Similarly, the fit of the BLM was also improved when taking into account exposure time and expressing uptake in terms of root morphological parameters.